TRENDS IN THE GRAIN MARKET OF UKRAINE

This article explores the current state of the grain industry in Ukraine, the main problems and trends of its development in the current economic conditions. The export potential of grain production has been investigated, economic feasibility and prospects of grain industry development in Ukraine have been grounded, the amount of production and cereals consumption in the world have been analyzed and summarized.

comprehensive solution of the production and sales of grain in the condition of regional and national grain markets formation haven't been investigated well enough yet.
Forming of the aims of the research.The grain complex is important for Ukraine and the world economy as a whole. In solution of the problem of food independence, grain and its products are of particular importance as a strategic food, suitable for long storage and transportation. The aim is to highlight the current state of grain production in Ukraine and analyze the dynamic trend of development in the future. Giving an account of the main results and their substantiation. Grain market is a system of commoditymoney relations arising between the subjects in the process of production, storage, trade and use of the grain, based on free competition, free choice directions of grain distribution and determining prices and state control over its quality and storage [1].
Over the last five years Ukraine has strengthened its position in the international agricultural market and is confident in the global top ten producers of grain. It is a leader in the production of sunflower and sunflower oil exports, and joined the top five leaders on grain exports. According to the regions in 2016, the production of grain in total summary weight within 64. As the country's domestic needs in grain are within 29 million tons every year, increasing of its total production affects the growth of export potential.

Pic.1. The growth yield of grain crops in Ukraine in the last 20 years (с/ha) [4]
Growth of basic grain cereals in Ukraine is significant. For twenty years the yield of wheat, corn and barley has grown by 69% on an average. The corn became the yield increase leader.
As for the world grain market indicators, the production of grain has a positive trend [5]. According to USDA's forecasts in 2016/17 marketing year, world grain production will be 2, 269 billion tons, exceeding the previous season by 100.2 million tons. The increase in production will take place in all groups of grain.

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ЕКОНОМІКА ХАРЧОВОЇ ПРОМИСЛОВОСТІ Том 9, Випуск 1/2017 Thus, the total wheat harvest will amount to 748.2 million tons that is 12.6 million tons more than in 2015. Production of barley in the world will decline slightly and will be 143,953 million tons. Forecasted corn production in the world has also increased. Thus, the expected production of corn in the world will amount to 1.04 billion tons that is 79.5 million tons higher than in 2015 [6].
The new grain season will have marked increase in the international trade activity. The total volume of grain exports will amount to 362.9 million tons, that is 5.6 million tons more than the previous season. Global grain stocks at the end of the 2016/2017 marketing year will reach 584.2 million tons, which exceeds the previous level by 16 million tons.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, Ukrainian farmers from the beginning of 2016/2017 marketing year (July 2016 -June 2017) exported 28.65 million tons of grain, which is by 2.99 million tons more than in the same period last year. Ukraine exported 13.33 million tons of wheat, which is by 1.78 million tons more than in the same period the previous marketing year. Exports of barley for the reporting period amounted to 4.64 million tons, which is by 0.68 million tons more than at the same period the previous marketing year. The volume of corn exports totalled 10.53 million tons, by 0.53 million tons more than in the same period of 2015/16 marketing year. For the period from 1 to 22 February 2016 Ukraine exported 2.09 million tons of grain [7].
The Black Sea region has an increased influence in the world wheat trade. In the last grain season Ukraine ranked the fifth position among world leaders of the wheat exports [8]. In addition, Ukraine increases its participation in Asian markets. During this period, the supply of Ukrainian wheat to foreign markets compared to the previous season increased by half [9]. The main domestic wheat importers last year were Egypt (13.5%, $ 365 million), Indonesia (12.2%, $ 330 million) and Thailand (11.04%, $ 300 million). In other countries in the reporting period wheat was shipped to $ 1.7 billion [4].
Summing up the 2016/2017 marketing year, farmers are planning to set a record on grain exports, providing 41.6 million tons of crops to the foreign markets [7].
No doubt, Ukraine managed to expand sales channels for agriculture in the global market in recent years and to persuade international partners in the reliability of performance of the contract. So, trust in Ukraine as an agrarian partner will contribute to the further development of domestic production of grain and its products.
There are a few factors which can prevent the growth of grain exports: -Unsatisfactory logistics and increased transportation costs; -Grain prices reduction at the beginning of a new season, which affects the price situation in the domestic market; -Imperfect system of taxation; -Limited financial contributions [10].
-There are several ways to solve the problem: -Improvement of grain market infrastructure; -Technical park modernization; -Program planning of production development; -Attracting of long-term investment; -Search for new markets. Conclusions and prospects of the further investigations. Thus, the most important component of agriculture is the grain industry, which provides a basis for the country economic guarantee. Grain production is a leader in the structure of the agricultural sector of Ukraine. The welfare, ensuring of national food security, the country export abilities depend on the level of effectiveness of its development. To hold positions in the international market for the sale of grain, it is important not only to reach the new sales channel, but also to preserve and strengthen the position in the domestic food marketdomestic producers must constantly invest in improving the efficiency of the industry and introduce innovative technologies for the production of competitive products.